NFL Prop Bets

Kyle Trask, Davis Mills and Kellen Mond Not Expected to Sneak Into First Round of Draft UPDATE: They Didn't

Brian Giuffra
Apr 28, 2021, 1:46 PM EDT
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond.
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond. | Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Why do you watch the NFL Draft? Hell, why does anyone watch it? It's the drama, man, the drama.

You just never know what's going to happen on draft night. Will someone have a photo of them smoking a bong released by their own family member just before they're expected to be picked? Will the agent of one of the top quarterbacks throw their water bottle at the table when their client isn't selected early? Will one of the draftees pull out a picture of the deceased grandmother who motivated them to make it pro and send shivers down your spine reminding you there's more to life than one night? You just don't know. That's why it's special.

Well, not to ruin the surprise, but there is one thing that seems highly probable ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft -- only five quarterbacks will be picked in the first round. Who picks them remains a guessing game. But according to the Vegas odds, there's less than a 15% chance six QBs are among the first 32 picks.

On WynnBET, you can currently wager how many quarterbacks will be selected in the first round. The prop bet total amount is set at 5.5 with the under a heavy favorite at -650 and the over a big underdog at +450. The implied odds of six quarterbacks being selected in the first round is 86.7%, which doesn't bode well for second-tier quarterbacks like Kyle Trask, Davis Mills and Kellen Mond.

Five quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Trey Lance) are all heavily favored to be first-round picks. That leaves Trask, Mills and Mond on the outside looking in. There's been some buzz than Trask could sneak into the first round. Those odds are Vegas' way of saying "ain't gonna happen."

It seems the most likely way for a sixth quarterback to be taken in the first round is a draft-day trade up. If, for instance, the Broncos or Eagles or Panthers or some other quarterback-desirous team sees an opportunity to get back into the first round and a team like the Saints or Bucs want to acquire more draft capital, it could happen. It just doesn't seem likely.

So sorry to all the Trask, Mills and Mond fans out there. Looks like you'll have to wait until Day 2 or later to hear your guy have their name called. Hell, Tom Brady's name wasn't called until the sixth round and it worked out ok for him, right? Maybe one of these guys will pan out better than the quarterbacks drafted in the first round.