UPDATE: This game was rained out and will be made up in June.
Jacob deGrom might be the most dominant 0-1 pitcher of all time. Today he goes for his first win of the season despite the fact that he should have two already if his damn teammates could give him some run support. But we digress and get to the point. Vegas loves deGrom to have a monster game against the Phillies.
deGrom has been given an over/under of 9.5 strikeouts, 3.5 hits and 1.5 earned runs by WynnBET. He's a heavy -160 favorite to get 10 or more strikeouts and even more heavily favored at-170 to give up 1 or fewer earned runs. The 3.5 hits player prop is basically a toss up.
This is all to say Vegas is projecting deGrom to have 10 strikeouts, 4 or fewer hits and give up 1 earned run against Philly. Do you agree that deGrom is going to dominate the Phillies? The numbers make sense.
deGrom has been dominant season. In 14 innings, he's struck out 21 batters, given up 8 hits and only 1 earned run. Despite that sterling performance, the Mets are 0-2 in deGrom's starts and have scored only three combined runs in those two games. deGrom took the loss against the Marlins five days ago.
WynnBET's projections for deGrom point to him getting his first win today. His win probability is -120 to get the win against -110 he won't. That means he's favored to win, though it is close, and if you bet $120 that he will win and he does, you win $100.
The Mets haven't provided deGrom with much run support yet, but they've scored 13 runs in three games against the Phillies in this series and won all three games. If they give deGrom four runs today, you'd have to think he'd do his part to get the win, right?