Patrick Mahomes has gone on record saying he’s eyeing a 17-0 regular season for the Kansas City Chiefs, but what do the oddsmakers think?
WynnBET has recently released odds for the top two teams in the NFL to go undefeated in 2021. They have the Chiefs odds of pulling it off at +3000, which is an implied probability of 3.23%.
While that may seem like a massive longshot, it’s for good reason. Only one team has finished the regular season without losing a game since the 1972 Miami Dolphins. The New England Patriots went 16-0 in 2007, but lost Super Bowl 42 to the New York Giants to finish 18-1.
What may seem more surprising than the odds themselves, is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have longer odds to pull it off than the Chiefs. WynnBET has the Bucs odds for going 17-0 in the regular season at +5000, which is an implied probability of 1.96%.
Tom Brady has achieved the feat of an undefeated season before, as he was the quarterback of the 2007 Patriots team.
The Buccaneers haven’t lost a game since their Week 13 bye week in 2020. They finished the regular season on a 4-0 run, and then went 4-0 in the playoffs to win Super Bowl 55. Now they enter the 2021 season having all 22 starters from their Super Bowl winning team returning for another season.
Not only that, but it was the Chiefs who they defeated in the big game. So why do oddsmakers think the Chiefs have a better chance of going undefeated?
One could argue the main reason is the level of competition in the NFC. Many would agree that the NFC is a stronger conference than the AFC, as there are a handful of teams that will be serious contenders in 2021.
The AFC, on the other hand, has only three or four teams that could seriously contend this season. The Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and now maybe the Tennessee Titans with the addition of Julio Jones, will have a realistic chance to win the conference.
A counterpoint to that, would be that the Buccaneers actually have an easier schedule in 2021 based on 2020 win percentage. The combined 2020 record of the Bucs opponents this year is 126-145-1, which will be the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chiefs opponents this year had a combined record of 138-132-2 last season, which will make their schedule the 11th most difficult in the NFL.
The Bucs and Chiefs are also the top two teams on the odds list to win the Super Bowl this year at +750 and +550 respectively. Don’t be shocked if we see a rematch of Super Bowl 55 come February.