MLB Player Props

3 Bold Predictions for Mets-Padres

Iain MacMillan
Jun 3, 2021, 3:00 PM EDT
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor could be in for big games tonight against the Padres.
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor could be in for big games tonight against the Padres. / Norm Hall/Getty Images

The National League East leading New York Mets have the largest division lead in all of Major League Baseball, as they begin a four game series with the San Diego Padres tonight.

The series will serve as a true measuring stick for both teams, as they are expected to make some noise in this year’s postseason.

The Mets enter the series winners of six of their last seven games, while the Padres will look to bounce back after getting swept by the Chicago Cubs in three straight games.

Tonight’s marquee matchup will feature a pitcher's duel between Taijuan Walker (1.84 ERA) and Yu Darvish (2.16 ERA).

Let’s take a look at three bold prop bets to make for tonight’s game. All odds listed are via WynnBET.

Pete Alonso to hit a home run +325

The 2019 MLB home run leader has got off to a slow start in the dinger department in 2021, but I expect that to turn around sooner rather than later. The 26-year old has seven plate appearances against Yu Darvish in his career, but one of those resulted in a long ball.

Home runs will start to come for Alonso, and I think tonight is as good of a night as any for his bat to start to get hot. Darvish has given up a home run in three of his last six starts.

Francisco Lindor to steal a base +650

If you want bold bets for tonight’s game, you’ve come to the right place. While +650 odds implies a probability of only13.33%, there are a few indications this a decent bet for tonight’s National League showdown.

Lindor enters the game already having four stolen bases on the year, with his latest one coming on May 25th against the Colorado Rockies. Tonight could be a great chance for him to grab his fifth of the season, as Darvish is one of the worst pitchers in the Majors in opponent’s success rate on steals.

Among all starting pitchers who have pitched at least 100 innings since 2018, Darvish has the sixth-highest opponent stolen base success rate at 0.919.

The Padres also rank dead last this season in opponent stolen base success percentage at 89.2%, and 25th in opponent steals per game at 0.58.

While the bet is still a longshot, the statistics show that it’s a good situation to take a shot at it.

Tajuan Walker OVER 2.5 earned runs +115

After a couple of longshot bets, let’s take a look at something that is more likely to happen, but still available at plus-money odds.

Walker has had a fantastic season so far, posting an impressive 1.84 ERA, but those strong numbers won't last. While his ERA is impressive, a 2.62 FIP shows that he’s been getting quite a bit of help from the Mets’ fielders.

Furthermore, tonight’s start comes against one of the most electric offenses in baseball. The injury status for their star player, Fernando Tatis Jr., is still unknown after he left last night’s game against the Cubs with right oblique tightness, but the Padres’ lineup is still a tough test for any Major League pitcher. San Diego ranks fifth in the National League in runs per game at 4.7.

I think betting on a bit of regression from Walker tonight is a smart move at +115.